Hey everybody! The day of the 84th Academy Awards is finally upon us. After seeing all of the Best Picture nominees again it seems clear that this past year was a year of nostalgia. Whether it was the throwback black and white/silent film The Artist or the story of the early days of cinema in Hugo, there were many films that dealt not only with nostalgia in the film world, but also in life (Midnight in Paris). Here is my official list of predictions and personal picks for the major categories.
§ Cinematography:
The Artist (Guillaume Schiffman), The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth), Hugo (Robert Richardson), The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki), War Horse (Janusz Kaminski)
Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki
Dark Horse: Robert Richardson
Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki and Robert Richardson
Commentary: While all of these guys are worthy of a nomination, Lubezki and Richardson easily stand out. Both of their movies are visually outstanding but I believe that Lubezki takes the edge since the focus of The Tree of Life was the visual spectacle of life.
§ Animated Feature Film:
A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango
Will/Should Win: Rango
Dark Horse: None
Commentary: After The Adventures of TinTin snub it is a no-brainer to predict that Rango will come away with the win. Though they included a couple of foreign language films (A Cat in Paris and Chico & Rita), no other film has enough momentum or support to take on the great film that is Rango.
*I was not able to see A Cat in Paris unfortunately, but I am fairly confident that Rango will still be the winner of the night.
§ Original Screenplay:
The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius), Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig), Margin Call (J.C. Chandor), Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen), A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)
Will/Should Win: Woody Allen
Dark Horse: Michel Hazanavicius
Commentary: This category had the most surprises by far. The fact that the Iranian film A Separation got a nod is proof of that. While I think that Woody Allen has this one in the bag, I put Hazanavicius in as the distant Dark Horse only because momentum could push him to a narrow victory. Woody Allen, however, wrote one of the most enjoyable screenplays of the year proving that he is not even close to being done with his incredible career.
§ Adapted Screenplay:
The Descendants (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash), Hugo (John Logan), The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon), Moneyball (Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin), Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan)
Will Win: The Descendants
Dark Horse: None
Should Win: The Descendants and Moneyball
Commentary: Though The Descendants lost a lot of its early momentum to The Artist, I believe that it will still claim this category. Having won precursors it does not seem like any other film will put up much of a fight against it. I am rather excited to see Jim Rash (the dean on Community) on stage. I did pick Moneyball as one I think should win not only because I love baseball (America’s true pastime), but also because the writers were able to take a book about math and turn it into an interesting and compelling story.
§ Best Supporting Actress:
Berenice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Mellisa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Dark Horse: Jessica Chastain
Should Win: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain
Commentary: While every single woman in this category deserves the recognition she is getting, there doesn’t seem to be any way that Spencer will not win. Though this category is known for producing upsets, I believe that with all of the momentum and precursors this is her night. The only reason I put Jessica Chastain as the Dark Horse is because she truly deserves an honorary Oscar for all of the films she was in this year. Never before have I seen someone be so consistently good in multiple films in a single year.
§ Best Supporting Actor:
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior). Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredible Close)
Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Dark Horse: none
Should Win: Christopher Plummer and Nick Nolte (got to give this guy and Warrior some love)
Commentary: While this category also had a few surprises, I do not think anyone can deny that this is Christopher Plummer’s year. After a very long career with so many memorable and solid performances, Plummer will finally get an Oscar for his talents.
§ Best Actress:
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
Will Win: Viola Davis
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Viola Davis and Meryl Streep….together…..just because I think it would be awesome.
Commentary: This race is one of the two (both in the lead acting categories) that has the biggest fight for the Oscar. Though Davis won the precursor SAG Award, it would be a mistake to count out Meryl Streep. Both of these women give incredible performances and I will be happy either way. While Meryl Streep has a habit of losing on Oscar night, it would please me greatly for this to be broken again (for her speech if nothing else).
§ Best Actor:
Demian Bichir (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Will/Should Win: Jean Dujardin
Dark Horse: George Clooney
Commentary: Like the previous category this race is also extremely close. I will say very plainly that I was not that impressed by Clooney’s performance. Though I do think Clooney gave a great performance, I refuse to acknowledge him as the best just because he cries on camera (this is what many people use as their reason to pick him). With the surprise SAG victory, it seems that Dujardin has the momentum to come away with the Oscar at the end of the night. He without a doubt had the most challenging role of those nominated since he had to rely greatly on his facial expression and acting in the silent film. With all of the momentum going towards The Artist, I think that Dujardin will beat out Clooney.
§ Directing:
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Dark Horse: Martin Scorsese
Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius and Martin Scorsese
Commentary: With the victory at the DGA and all of the momentum behind him, I believe that it is safe to say that Hazanavicius has this one in the bag. For bringing back the silent genre in a great way he breathes life into this wonderful and nostalgic story. With great performances from all of his actors and having both directed and written (among other things) this wonderful story, I see no other person taking this award. I chose Martin Scorsese as the Dark Horse (and one of my picks) because he also created a visual spectacle filled with nostalgia and beauty. Since Hugo did get the most nominations this year, I cannot count him out completely.
§ Best Picture:
The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (WTF), The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Will Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: Hugo
Should Win: The Artist and Midnight in Paris
Commentary: With the 2nd most nominations, a DGA winning director, and the most momentum, it is safe to say that The Artist will come away with the big prize at the end of the night. The Artist was one of my favorite films of the year because it not only brought back a silent/black and white film, but also because it shed a light onto the beautiful early history of cinema. Though Hugo also does this in many captivating ways, I was drawn closer to The Artist because of its dedication to a sadly forgotten genre. Hugo is the obvious Dark Horse because it garnered the most nominations (75% of those with the most noms have won best picture).
Odin’s Movie Ranking:
1. The Artist
2. Midnight in Paris
3. Hugo
4. Moneyball
5. The Help
6. War Horse
7. The Descendants
8. The Tree of Life
* Extremely Loud & Incredible Close has no reason to be nominated
And those are all of my picks and predictions! I will say that many of them do not factor in the total momentum of certain films. For all we know The Artist could sweep the night and bring underdogs for the ride. Tune in to ABC tonight to find out!
